Real estate & resilience · CC BY 4.0
Estimating the Flood Risk Discount: Evidence From a One-off National Information Shock
Tom Gillespie; Ronan C. Lyons; Thomas K. J. McDermott
Environmental and Resource Economics · 2025-03-10
Flood disclosure, property valuation and intergenerational property stewardship. Adjacent housing-market evidence rather than a direct family-office study.
Original practical companion
Before the Flood Map Changes: A Disclosure and Valuation Playbook for Family-Owned Property
Flood exposure and the market recognition of that exposure are separate risks. Gillespie, Lyons and McDermott study the release of Irish flood maps in 2011 and estimate a persistent price discount for exposed housing. This companion translates their identification strategy and limitations into a proposed family-office process: retain dated hazard information, separate physical loss from repricing, challenge appraisals, and prepare for disclosure changes before a transaction. It does not recommend a universal valuation haircut or claim that the proposed process has been empirically validated.